Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1919
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 04 2022 19:48:10

ACUS11 KWNS 041948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041947=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-042145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma southward across the
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 560...

Valid 041947Z - 042145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 560 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk -- including potential for tornadoes
-- continues across portions of WW 560.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop over the southern Plains shows storms
occurring in two zones -- one, featuring elevated storms capable of
producing marginal hail on the cool side of the cold front, and a
second, warm-advection-driven band of storms from south of the DFW
Metroplex north-northeastward into southeastern Oklahoma.=20=20

This band of warm-sector storms will continue to pose the greatest
severe-weather risk over the next couple of hours, where a
moist/amply unstable, and strongly sheared environment remains in
place ahead of the front.

In the past couple of hours, an increase in the number of
strong/occasionally rotating storms has been observed.  One such
storm passed through the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and a second is now
organizing just to the northeast.  Meanwhile, a second transiently
supercellular cluster of storms is moving across southeastern
Oklahoma, where a couple of tornado warnings are in effect, and
where damage to mobile homes was reported around 1830Z.=20=20

Expect supercell coverage to increase over the next 1-2 hours, as
cells in an area from roughly Dallas to Stephenville to Waco in
particular appear likely to ramp up in the short term.

...Goss.. 11/04/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!67-gHJbxeINY6UCnf6_mpX8OUKXBIH4H8TT1lsglocCGG9Nx24wmByD7nK9YHi1d9gb_2JAy1=
2xXikgSHb9HbpNxj1k$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31139711 31669812 34289704 35259588 34769542 33509499
            31339688 31139711=20


=3D =3D =3D
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