Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 04 2022 17:09:32 ACUS02 KWNS 041709 SWODY2 SPC AC 041708 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND OH VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Saturday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. Occasional damaging winds should be the main threat. ....Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is expected to extend from western IA south-southwestward into east TX early Saturday morning. An expansive area of moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this wave, stretching from central TX through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday morning. Expectation is for this wave to quickly move northeastward through the mid MS Valley, Upper Great Lakes, and eastern Ontario throughout the period, while deepening and becoming more negatively tilted. Surface low associated with this shortwave is forecast to be over the IA/WI/IL border intersection vicinity early, before also moving northeastward and occluding. An attendant cold front will extend southward from this low, and will move quickly eastward/northeastward as the parent system moves northeastward. By 00Z Sunday, this front is expected to extend from eastern MI south-southwestward through Middle TN, central MS, and southeast LA. The northern portion of the front will likely remain progressive as it moves across the upper OH Valley Saturday evening and overnight. The southern portion of the front is expected to stall as surface pressure lowers across the Plains ahead of the next wave. ....Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from the Mid-South through the Lower MS Valley along and ahead of the front Saturday morning. This front is expected to continue pushing eastward throughout the day while the main wave and forcing for ascent becoming increasingly displace north/northeast of the region. The air mass ahead of the front across the central Gulf Coast and central MS/AL will likely feature upper 60s dewpoints and moderate buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. This moisture/buoyancy should support a persistence of the ongoing storms as they move through the region. The strongest low to mid-level flow will stay attendant to the main wave, with shear gradually decreasing throughout the day across the region as a result. These factors should increasingly limit the severe potential throughout the day, with the highest potential anticipated across southeast LA and southern MS early Saturday. Expectation is that a few storms may become strong enough to produce damaging gusts. ....Mid/Upper OH Valley...Upper Great Lakes... Robust low/mid-level flow will spread across the region during the afternoon and evening as the strong shortwave trough quickly advances from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should remain fairly modest, keeping instability quite meager. Still, strong forcing for ascent is expected to result in a low-topped convective line by Saturday afternoon. Consequently, the enhanced low-level flow may reach the surface and produce strong/gusty winds as the line moves through. ...Mosier.. 11/04/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .