Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1917 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 04 2022 16:28:59 ACUS11 KWNS 041628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041628=20 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-041730- Mesoscale Discussion 1917 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma across north-central and northeastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20 Valid 041628Z - 041730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Potential for severe/supercell storms is expected to gradually increase into the afternoon. All-hazards severe risk is expected, including likelihood for for significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large hail. A tornado watch will likely be required by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection increasing in coverage/intensity along an advancing cold front now stretching from southeastern Kansas across central and southwestern Oklahoma and into western North Texas. Ahead of the front/frontal convection, a moistening boundary layer is indicated, with mid 60s dewpoints into southeastern Oklahoma and low 70s dewpoints now spreading toward the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The low-level moistening is occurring beneath a rather substantial capping inversion, revealed by the recent 15Z FWD RAOB, and which extends across the warm sector as suggested by the character of the low cloudiness as revealed by recent visible satellite imagery.=20 This cloudiness will continue to retard heating, and thus low-level destabilization, over the next several of hours, but cooling aloft -- associated with the advancing upper system -- will allow gradual airmass destabilization, particularly above 700mb. Weak warm-advection-induced showery convection indicated across the warm sector continues to gradually increase, with some small/higher reflectivity cores beginning to become apparent. Expect a gradual ramp-up in this convection to continue -- with eventual growth into cellular/lightning-producing cells as cooling aloft continues within the capping layer and above.=20=20 Once deep convection becomes established, rapid intensification to severe levels is expected, as very favorable shear -- provided by low-level southerly flow veering to south-southwesterly and increasing to 50 kt at around 1km along with additional veering above -- resides across the warm sector. Risk for strong/significant tornadoes will then ensue, as storms acquire strong rotation. Large hail and locally damaging winds are also expected. Risk for damaging winds will likely increase later this afternoon and beyond, as convection strengthens linearly along the front with time, likely merging gradually with pre-frontal cellular convection to evolve into a well-developed squall line by early evening. This anticipated evolution will likely require tornado watch issuance within the next hour or two, extending eastward across southeastern Oklahoma and North Texas toward the Arklatex region. ...Goss/Hart.. 11/04/2022 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_b9s9XQkKrhBspa-VaGtaTV_JT3SAuxMUnxLl8BDh2lVRA_h3IGgouGtlmIM9EWWDbo3iuJU2= yAiSDeWpkfkNRa7IT4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34629724 35179639 35689521 35649412 34169418 32989443 31249528 30779687 31299852 32799858 34629724=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .