Subj : Re: Biden Receives Award!
To   : JEFF THIELE
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 17:17:00

> Is it outside the realm of possibility that Trump could seek, and win, the
> GOP nomination for 2024?

Anything is possible.  Few initially thought he would win the nomination in
2016, just as few initially thought that Obama would beat Hillary, that
Hillary would be able to come back and win it in 2016 (if they knew she was
in control of the DNC finances, they might have thought so), or that Biden
would be able to come back from multiple failed attempts over 30+ years and
finally win the nomination.

For Trump to do so, I would say there would need to be a very weak field.

> Why did the "red wave" fail to materialize? Was it because some Republican
> voters chose to abstain? Was it because some Republican voters chose to vote
> for a Democrat? Was it due to independent voters? The answer to that question
> is quite relevant to Trump's relevancy.

I think that was an over-prediction.  My understanding was always that the
Republicans were likely to take control of the House (which they did) and
had an outside chance of having a thin Senate majority (which is yet to be
decided, last I checked).  That was the "wave" that I thought was expected.

Others were apparently expecting most all Democrats to lose, which is not
realistic.  They are disappointed I am sure but that was predictable.

> Is Trump's MAGA worldview more popular than his damage to the party is
> unpopular? Will Trump voluntarily step down from a fight against Ron
> "DeSanctimonious?"

I doubt he'd step down, but I also doubt he'd win.

> Perhaps we should wait for his "very big announcement" on November 15th to
> evaluate his relevancy. Future rally attendance statistics could also be
> informative.

Maybe, but they really were not informative when it came to the 2020
election outcome.


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