Subj : Re: Crossings vs. encount
To   : Mike Powell
From : Jeff Thiele
Date : Tue Oct 11 2022 16:07:49

On 11 Oct 2022, Mike Powell said the following...
 MP> > The difference is that the Border Patrol says that "encounters" are even
 MP> > not people. If one attempts to use the "encounter" number as a "people"
 MP> > number, then one would arrive at an incorrect estimate of the number of
 MP> > people trying to cross the border.
 MP> OK, so if they encountered illegal Jeff and illegal Mike and lllegal
 MP> Aaron together at the same time, that is one encounter with a group of
 MP> three people? That does make sense.

My understanding is that that would be three encounters. And if they met us
again the next day that would be another three encounters. So, six encounters
in two days. But if someone were to look at that and misinterpret encounters
as people, they might think that six encounters over three days means that
six different people tried to enter the country, which is not true.

 MP> >  MP> The only way they'd not have a close corelation would be if the ill
 MP> >  MP> are indeed crossing and not encountering an agent in large enough
 MP> >  MP> numbers
 MP> >  MP> for it to matter.  Aaron and others do think this is true, and I ma
 MP> >  MP> wrong, but I am thinking that you don't.  So, if they are wrong, th
 MP> >  MP> numbers should be nearly the same.
 MP> > Aaron is potentially confusing the number of encounters (events) with th
 MP> > number of migrants (people) attempting to cross the border.
 MP> Sounds like maybe so.  Sounds like the number of encounters should be
 MP> less-than the number of migrants.

If any of the migrants attempt to enter more than once, yes.

Jeff.

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