Subj : 2 The ARRL Letter for February 15, 2018 To : all From : mark lewis Date : Fri Feb 16 2018 09:00:52 Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We should be seeing some enhanced propagation due to a current modest rise in solar activity, which may increase further over the next few days. Solar activity increased over the February 8-14 reporting week. Average daily sunspot number rose from 10.3 to 24, while average daily solar flux increased from 72.5 to 77.4. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index changing from 4.4 to 4.1, and average mid-latitude A index going from 3.6 to 3. Predicted solar flux is 75, 74, 73, and 70; on February 15-18; 69 on February 19-28; 72 on March 1; 75 on March 2-3; 78 on March 4-13; 76 on March 14-15; 72 on March 16; 70 on March 17-21; 69 on March 22-27; 72 on March 28; 75 on March 29-30, and 78 on March 31. Predicted planetary A index is 28, 20, and 15 on February 15-17; 10 on February 18-19; 8 on February 20-21; 5 on February 22-March 3; 8 on March 4; 5 on March 5-13; 8, 15, 12, 10, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on March 14-21; 5 on March 22-30, and 8 on March 31. February 4 was the last day that a new sunspot appeared. Before that, February 2 showed a new spot. Sunspot numbers for February 8-14 were 22, 23, 35, 24, 26, 20, and 18, with a mean of 24. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 77.5, 78.1, 78.2, 78.2, 78.6, 75.9, and 75.3, with a mean of 77.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 4, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 7, 2, 3, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3. Send me your reports and observations. ____________________________________________________________________________ Just Ahead in Radiosport * February 17 -- SARL Youth Day Sprint * February 17 -- Feld Hell Sprint * February 17-18 -- ARRL International DX Contest (CW) * February 17-18 -- Russian PSK WW Contest * February 17-18 -- AWA Amplitude Modulation QSO Party * February 18-21 -- Classic Exchange (Phone) * February 19 -- Run for the Bacon QRP Contest (CW) * February 21 -- AGCW Semi-Automatic Key Evening (CW) * February 22 -- RSGB 80-Meter Club Championship (CW) See the ARRL Contest Calendar for more information. 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