Subj : RIPE to run out of IPv4 this week? To : Andre Grueneberg From : Michiel van der Vlist Date : Fri Aug 03 2012 01:25:09 Hello Andre, On Thursday August 02 2012 00:25, you wrote to me: MvdV>> I agree ... up to a point. When in fivem ten or twenty five MvdV>> years, the first ISP disables IPv4, wil you then also say they MvdV>> offer crippled internet? AG> Though I do not agree that it will take so long time for first AG> IPv6-only customers, Nono, I was not referring to the first IPv6 only customers. I was referring to the day that the first ISP that switches of all support for IPv4. That may take a lot longer. ISP's may run out of IPv4 adresses, so that new customers will be IPv6 only, but existing customers will presumably keep their IPv4 address and be dual stack for many years to come. Some day that will end. AG> RFC6540 just makes IPv6 mandatory ... it doesn't AG> say IPv4 is. So to me IPv6 only is also Internet. AG> Quote: AG> New and updated IP networking implementations should support IPv4 AG> and IPv6 coexistence (dual-stack), but must not require IPv4 for AG> proper and complete function. So now we will have a discussion about "should" vs "must". ;-) AG> So IPv6 is mandatory and IPv4 is a should ... It has never been clear to me what the status of RFC's is. I thought they were more guidelines than law.. MvdV>> Sure. Most providers here in The Netherlands claim that they MvdV>> still have enough IPv4 addresses for the next three or four MvdV>> years. Keep in mind that broadband penetration is very high in MvdV>> The Netherlands. 6+ million on a population of 15 million. MvdV>> Which means almost every household already has an (IPv4) MvdV>> address. The market is almst saturated, so very little growth MvdV>> is to be expected in the short term. AG> Please do not forget that we're not alone ... though the north-western AG> hemisphere might not be affected too much, other regions in this world AG> are growing ... heavily. Of course. That is exactly what I have been telling my ISP when they say not to worry, because they still have plenty of IPv4 addresses to serve new customers. Without IPv6 there will be problems reaching thsoe is Asia that are IPv6 only. AG>>> like mobile operators generally already do for ages. MvdV>> Of course, the ISPs offering fixed connections will run out MvdV>> eventually. My estimate is that - for all but a few smal MvdV>> players - this wil not happen before they have rolled out IPv6. MvdV>> Some small ones may miss the boat and go belly up. That's MvdV>> life... AG> I rather see IPv4 exhaustion as another hurdle for any new player for AG> the time coming. In practice it is impossible to start a new growing AG> Internet access provider ... anywhere in the world. Yes. A new provider can not get IPv4 address space and at the moment that means that very large parts of the internet will only be accesible by crippled kludges like CGNAT. AG> You'll need to start with some crippled IPv4 right away. As not all AG> content is dual-stack, many Yep. MvdV>>>> Do you know of any services that are only available via IPv6? AG>>> Yes, I do. ;) MvdV>> Which ones? AG> Star Wars ASCII in colors. AG> The SMTP service at my home. What's the url? MvdV>> BTW, what is you prediction foor RIPE IPv4 depletion? AG> I did not fully understand the rules behind it. I'm not planning to AG> understand it more deeply at the moment and I consider this kind of AG> contest non-sense. ;) Ah, well, it is just a game. Just pick a date between now and next year and who knows, you may win the trophy. ;-) AG> Greetings from Tartu, Estonia ... How is the weather there? Cheers, Michiel --- GoldED+/W32-MINGW 1.1.5-b20110320 * Origin: 2001:470:1f15:1117::1 (2:280/5555) .