Subj : RIPE to run out of IPv4 this week?
To   : Michiel van der Vlist
From : Andre Grueneberg
Date : Thu Aug 02 2012 00:25:08

Hi Michiel

Michiel van der Vlist schrieb:

 MvdV>>> Well, I think that is a bit harsh. Yet...
 AG>> Well at least they are not offering IP then ... only a subset of it.
 AG>> See RFC6540 aka BCP177.
 MvdV> I agree ... up to a point. When in fivem ten or twenty five
 MvdV> years, the first ISP disables IPv4, wil you then also say they
 MvdV> offer crippled internet? 

Though I do not agree that it will take so long time for first IPv6-only customers, RFC6540 just makes IPv6 mandatory ... it doesn't say IPv4 is. So to me IPv6 only is also Internet.

Quote:
New and updated IP networking implementations should support IPv4
and IPv6 coexistence (dual-stack), but must not require IPv4 for
proper and complete function.

So IPv6 is mandatory and IPv4 is a should ...

 AG>> The problem for the IPv6 requirement is not so much in the services,
 AG>> but it's in the end nodes. Any ISP with growing subscriber counts will
 AG>> soon not be able to sell real IPv4, but only NATed on ...
 MvdV> Sure. Most providers here in The Netherlands claim that they
 MvdV> still have enough IPv4 addresses for the next three or four
 MvdV> years. Keep in mind that broadband penetration is very high in
 MvdV> The Netherlands.  6+ million on a population of 15 million. Which
 MvdV> means almost every household already has an (IPv4) address. The
 MvdV> market is almst saturated, so very little growth is to be
 MvdV> expected in the short term.

Please do not forget that we're not alone ... though the north-western hemisphere might not be affected too much, other regions in this world are growing ... heavily.

 AG>>  like mobile operators generally already do for ages.
 MvdV> Of course, the ISPs offering fixed connections will run out
 MvdV> eventually. My estimate is that - for all but a few smal players
 MvdV> - this wil not happen before they have rolled out IPv6. Some
 MvdV> small ones may miss the boat and go belly up. That's life...

I rather see IPv4 exhaustion as another hurdle for any new player for the time coming. In practice it is impossible to start a new growing Internet access provider ... anywhere in the world. You'll need to start with some crippled IPv4 right away. As not all content is dual-stack, many 

 MvdV>>> Do you know of any services that are only available via IPv6?
 AG>> Yes, I do. ;)
 MvdV> Which ones?

Star Wars ASCII in colors.
The SMTP service at my home. 

 MvdV> BTW, what is you prediction foor RIPE IPv4 depletion?

I did not fully understand the rules behind it. I'm not planning to understand it more deeply at the moment and I consider this kind of contest non-sense. ;)

Greetings from Tartu, Estonia ...

CU Andre               E-Mail: andre@grueneberg.de 
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