Subj : RIPE to run out of IPv4 this week?
To   : Andre Grueneberg
From : Michiel van der Vlist
Date : Wed Aug 01 2012 21:22:27

Hello Andre,

On Wednesday August 01 2012 20:27, you wrote to me:

 AG>>> Well, by now anything without IPv6 is crippled internet. :)

 MvdV>> Well, I think that is a bit harsh. Yet...

 AG> Well at least they are not offering IP then ... only a subset of it.
 AG> See RFC6540 aka BCP177.

I agree ... up to a point. When in fivem ten or twenty five years, the first ISP disables IPv4, wil you then also say they offer crippled internet?
 MvdV>> Honestly compels me to admit that I have not yet run into a
 MvdV>> situation of "for this service you need IPv6". Nor have I heard
 MvdV>> of anyone else in The Netherlands running into that situation.

 AG> The problem for the IPv6 requirement is not so much in the services,
 AG> but it's in the end nodes. Any ISP with growing subscriber counts will
 AG> soon not be able to sell real IPv4, but only NATed on ...

Sure. Most providers here in The Netherlands claim that they still have enough IPv4 addresses for the next three or four years. Keep in mind that broadband penetration is very high in The Netherlands.  6+ million on a population of 15 million. Which means almost every household already has an (IPv4) address. The market is almst saturated, so very little growth is to be expected in the short term.

 AG>  like mobile operators generally already do for ages.

Of course, the ISPs offering fixed connections will run out eventually. My estimate is that - for all but a few smal players - this wil not happen before they have rolled out IPv6. Some small ones may miss the boat and go belly up. That's life...

 MvdV>> Do you know of any services that are only available via IPv6?

 AG> Yes, I do. ;)

Which ones?

BTW, what is you prediction foor RIPE IPv4 depletion?


Cheers, Michiel

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