Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Mon Dec 22 2025 00:19:02

   :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Dec 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the
   U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA
   Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr
   Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3
   hr Kp for Dec 22-Dec 24 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index
   breakdown Dec 22-Dec 24 2025 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24 00-03UT 3.67 4.67 (G1)
   3.33 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 3.67 09-12UT
   3.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 2.67 2.67 3.33 15-18UT 3.67 1.67 3.33 18-21UT 3.67
   2.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
   storms are likely on 22-23 Dec due to CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar
   Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed
   by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level
   thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2025 Dec 22
   Dec 23 Dec 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater
   solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity
   favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio
   Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were
   observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 21 2025 1827 UTC.
   Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2025 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24 R1-R2
   25% 25% 30% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1
   (Minor) or greater radio blackouts through 24 Dec.


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