Subj : 3-Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Fri May 17 2019 12:51:50

   :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2019 May 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the
   U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA
   Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr
   Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest
   expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp
   index breakdown May 17-May 19 2019 May 17 May 18 May 19 00-03UT 3 2 2
   03-06UT 1 3 1 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 3 1 1 15-18UT 3 2 1
   18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 5 (G1) 2 2 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
   storming is likely on 17 May due to anticipated CME arrival. B. NOAA Solar
   Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed
   by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level
   thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2019 May 17
   May 18 May 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater
   solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity
   favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio
   Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the
   past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2019 May 17 May
   18 May 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor)
   or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region
   flare activity is forecast.


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