Subj : Pandemic
To   : Dan Cross
From : Lee Lofaso
Date : Thu Mar 19 2020 23:25:59

Hello Dan,

>LL>>In Italy it went through the roof once they ran out of hospital space
> and
>LL>>could no longer effectively treat people.  1% is about right for the US.
>LL>
>LL>You think so?  You really think so?
>
>Yes, I do.  As long as we can keep the number of occupied
>hospital beds below the threshold, we'll maintain that
>rate.  The unfortunate reality, however, is that we're
>unlikely to be able to do that, so our mortality rate will
>also spike.

Wishful thinking.  The numbers presented are based on the
total number of beds, all empty beds with none occupied.
The real numbers show that hospitals are two-thirds full,
with many cases of seasonal flu.

What will be needed is field hospitals, using tents as rooms.
And converting hospital beds to ICU beds.  Otherwise, it will
be a lost cause.

To give you an idea as to how many test kits are available,
just look at the numbers.  The state of Louisiana has four and
a half million people.  The highest number of tests it has been
able to do is 172.  A total of 669 tests over 7 days.

Look at total tested and total cases -

Total tested   - 805 over 8 days
Total positive - 347 over 8 days

That is rate fast approaching 50%.

Think about how many folks who have the coronavirus who
have never been tested.  And might never get tested.
Along with the inability to test more than just a handful
of the total population.

>As I said earlier, the IFR (Infection-fatality rate) varies
>across healthcare systems.  As jacked up as our system is,
>our actual standard of care is very good (if accessible).
>Until it gets overwhelmed, the IFR in the US will remain
>around 1%.

The population of Madrid is already 80% infected.
The population of Italy is almost 70% infected.
The population of Germany is expected to hit close to 70% infected.

I fully expect the US to be 80% infected, with 15% severe, half
of whom will die.  That is 20 million dead Americans, before the
end of this year.

You still think we're gonna have a presidential election?

Just think of the new jobs program that the next administration
will create.  No, you do not really want to think about that ...

--Lee

-- 
We Make Your Wet Dreams Come True

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