Subj : Russia's Defeat
To   : Kaelon
From : Arelor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 15:52:25

  Re: Russia's Defeat
  By: Kaelon to All on Thu Jul 27 2023 07:46 pm

 > As we approach the 18 month horizon of Vladimir Putin's botched invasion of  > 
 > So what does Russia's defeat look like?
 > 
 > I have some thoughts:
 > 
 > 1. Crimea will eventually be retaken by Ukraine.
 > 2. Russia will be pushed out of the Donbas.
 > 3. An insurgency will advance in Belgorod.
 > 4. One or more additional coups will be launched against Moscow.
 > 5. Inevitable Civil War may befall the Russian Federation.
 > 
 > Inflammatory, I know.  What are your thoughts?
 > 
 > _____
 > -=: Kaelon :=-
 > 
 > ---
 >  þ Synchronet þ Vertrauen þ Home of Synchronet þ [vert/cvs/bbs].synchro.net

I pretty much think Russia will fail to achieve its 4 original invasion goals
yet still render Ukraine a non-threat via attrition war.

Which is to mean they won't take a significant portion of territory (because
they lack resources for that) but can render Ukraine into a pseudo-failed
state, just because they have superior firepower and can produce more cheap
gear faster. Wars of attrition get lost by the party who runs out of people or
weapons faster and so far Ukraine is bleeding out population and the NATO
powers are getting disarmed themselves to supply Ukraine with gear.

My guess is Ukraine will end up as a Mark between the West and Russia just
because Ukraine itself won't have resources left to be anybody's ally after thedeal is done. We will have Cold War II because Russians won't trust the West
after the Minsk backstab and the West won't trust the Russians after trashing
an ally.

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