Subj : Re: Recession to Depressi
To   : Dr. What
From : Arelor
Date : Sun Jul 24 2022 14:51:52

  Re: Re: Recession to Depressi
  By: Dr. What to Arelor on Sun Jul 24 2022 09:17 am

 > The Bruce Schneier book "Liars and Outliars" comes to mind.  He goes over wh
 > most people are honest, why a few people are almost always dishonest, and wh
 > honest people will sometimes be dishonest.  It's actually quite interesting.
 > 
 > But I disagree with your idea that people are inherently untrustworthy.  The
 > are completely trustworthy: to do what is in **their**, not **your**, best
 > interests.  Once you understand that, you don't do things like always pay
 > upfront, for example.
 > 

That is all good in paper.

My observation from playing hundres of board games is that people is actually
very bad at deciding for the best option for themselves and that there are lots
of arbitrary psychological factors kicking in. This also applies in real life
in spades, but I bring up board games because the impact is measurable.

I can count by scores the number of times I have offered a deal in a board game
that provided both myself and the second party with a huge boost, and the offer
has been discarded in favor of a move that placed the other player in a losing
position. I can also count by scores the number of times I have made a move
assuming the next player in turn order would act in his best interest, making
both he and me a lot of points and destroying the third player, only for the
second player to make a suicidal move and grant victory to the third player
instead.

Many of those botches were made in games with PERFECT INFORMATION.

Fast forward to real life, I can tell so many stories about people backstabbing
a third party for 3000 EUR of benefit when a deal between the two would have
made them tens of thousand of Euro. It is freaking nuts.

History is full of losers who did not only lose, but they pulled lots of people
alongside them in their trip to Hell. Hitler comes to mind.

This applies in so many fields of life. Jack has hut where he throws parties
with friends. One day the wind damages the roof very badly and Jack asks for
friends for help in order to get it repaired, because Jack is one-handed and
has a wooden peg for a leg. Game theory dictates  that at least one of Jack's
friends will help out, because for a limited investment, everybody will get to
continue having parties in Jack's hut. What happens is that everyone of Jack
friends stays at home bored forever more because they don't want to spend the
meagrest of resources, usually because they never gave a damn for Jack to being
with.

It would not be a problem if people lacked loyalty ONLY. THe problem is they
are stupid in addition to that.





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