Subj : Re: Recession to Depression
To   : poindexter FORTRAN
From : Kaelon
Date : Sat Jul 16 2022 09:07:32

  Re: Re: Recession to Depression
  By: poindexter FORTRAN to Kaelon on Mon Jul 11 2022 07:30 am

 > I spent the afternoon in Silicon Valley, went shopping at an outdoor mall I
 > used to go to when I was a kid. We're in one of the most overpriced real
 > estate markets, and it felt like the number of retail shops had dwindled, to
 > be replaced by overpriced food and real estate offices. I suppose you can't
 > afford retail any more - Amazon will eat your lunch if you're selling
 > commodity goods and local specialty retail can't pay the exorbitant rent.
 >
 > It's a shame.

I completely agree with you.  It's totally heart-breaking.  But, practically speaking, it is now also a matter of life-or-death for many families and our very cities.  It is entirely unaffordable - now on the other side of the pandemic - to live in or near any major metropolitan areas.  At first, the suburbs (where I live) saw property values soar by 70% year-over-year as people fled the cities and went there to escape congestion amidst the viral surges.

Now, as the Pandemic is being better managed and the majority of Americans are vaccinated, people are returning into the cities.  But we've got a passive catch-22. Mortgage rates skyrocketted in part due to inflation (9.1% right now is insane territory - people just do not understand how close to a total economic collapse we are) - and the rising property values extended to the cities as commercial real estate collapsed during the pandemic and owners needed to liquidate holdings as all surrounding businesses (specifically, the retail and restaurant sectors that were designed primarily to support commuters since the post-war period) failed.

Net-result: in Boston, alone, rent is up 28% year-over-year, and in Manhattan, rent has soared to an average rate of $5,000/mo. for your average renter.  This is grossly unaffordable, especially since minimum wages haven't kept up with inflation for over 30 years (if they would have, the pre-pandemic minimum wage would have been $33/hour, and now the absurdity of arguing for $15/hour is still less than half of what average people need).  As inflation catches up, and the city economic sectors collapse, we are going to see vast poverty across the country and the idea of home-ownership will end for all but those of us who already own outright.

The death of small businesses isn't the cause - it's the symptom.  Of an unsustainable market that globalized and created pathways of efficiencies with just-in-time delivery and absolutely zero margin for failure.  Well, it's all failed, and eventually, the cost of all goods will start to exceed the public's availability to pay for even the bare necessities.

You already see this in the price of food, all up between 9-30% for basic essentials: fruits, bread, milk.

We're all screwed, guys.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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