Subj : Re: Recession to Depression
To   : Kaelon
From : Andeddu
Date : Tue Jul 12 2022 21:04:35

  Re: Re: Recession to Depression
  By: Kaelon to Andeddu on Sun Jul 10 2022 08:41 am

 > I agree, and if you study root causes of our economic inter-dependence and
 > transformation into a consumer-only society, the liability rests with the
 > rise of corporate syndicates in the early 1970s after the demise of the
 > Nixon Administration. All of the industrial and commercial infrastructure in
 > the 1980s and 1990s, while largely responsible for dramatic technological
 > innovation, has been solely focused on the consumer experience and hardly on
 > the creation of systemic and inherent value streams.

Absolutely. We no longer have capitalism, we have corporatism otherwise known
as late-stage capitalism, which is essentially globalism. Governments are
monoliths that pry into every aspect of our lives compared to half a century
ago when they were serving as mere administrators. The Western economy is built
on war and the dominance Middle-Eastern oil. Once the USD loses its position as
the World Reserve Currency, which will no doubt happen very soon, the USA is
finished.

 > Once again, I agree. This short-term thinking is inherent to
 > hyper-capitalist planning which emphasizes quarterly results and monthly
 > incrementalism, so as to maximize shareholder value, but results in
 > extremely unstable businesses and countless bubbles.  Considering the
 > example I gave in software, so much private equity and venture capital
 > behavior has been designed to build these unsustainable capitalized
 > experiments that return "3-5x" of their value to PEs over a 24-36 month
 > period, that when they finally enter real market conditions and start
 > stumbling with longer-term institutional investors, they become ripe targets
 > for acquisition and dismemberment.  Richard Gere's character from "Pretty
 > Woman" must be sitting pretty with his business model. ;)

Yep. We will see many fewer start-ups going forward now too as interest rates
have to continually increase to combat inflation.

 > Final note - I am in workforce management as an industry, and late last year
 > we started seeing huge shifts that have been building for over a decade, but
 > are unprecedented in their scale.  The Pandemic, the Supply Chain Woes, the
 > Energy Crisis, and even the Wars and geopolitical re-alignment that
 > accompany them -- these are all symptomatic and/or aggrivating factors of a
 > much needed realignment in our entire economic system.  And its collapse
 > will be far worse than anything anyone has ever seen, but it really didn't
 > have to be this way.  Now, however, it's too late - and all of our
 > institutions, from our government to our financial markets, will be
 > liquidated in this process.

We are going to see a lot less capital going around resulting in another credit
crunch. The cost of living crisis is going to wipe away the remaining small and
medium sized businesses as the public are no longer going be in possession of
expendable income with which to visit resturaunts, drink in bars, go on holiday
and purchase luxury items. Like I mentioned before... fuel in the UK is has
risen by around 80% since last year and the cost of energy has risen 2x with it
being purported to increase 3x by this winter. Small and medium sized
businesses are NOT going to see the other side of this and will be forced to
let their workforce go resulting in mass unemployment.

Carbon Net Zero is a massive problem too and one which will seal the deal on
our path to destruction.

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