Subj : Re: Recession to Depression
To   : Andeddu
From : Kaelon
Date : Sun Jul 10 2022 08:41:06

  Re: Re: Recession to Depression
  By: Andeddu to Kaelon on Sat Jul 09 2022 03:03 pm

 > Our leaders are at fault for repeatedly selling us out to China for the last
 > 30 years. We've somehow gone from being an economic and manufactuing
 > powerhouse to a hollowed out consumer based society with zero value. There
 > is no viable plan to reduce public services or shrink goverment to a
 > sustainable level and even during the Trump presidency I failed to see any
 > tangible private sector growth.

I agree, and if you study root causes of our economic inter-dependence and transformation into a consumer-only society, the liability rests with the rise of corporate syndicates in the early 1970s after the demise of the Nixon Administration. All of the industrial and commercial infrastructure in the 1980s and 1990s, while largely responsible for dramatic technological innovation, has been solely focused on the consumer experience and hardly on the creation of systemic and inherent value streams.

 > Every successive goverment appears to believe they can print the difference
 > between tax revenue and outgoings year on year without creating problems
 > down the line. Well they are evidently wrong and the horror show numbers
 > along with the soon-to-be massive rise in unemployment proof in the pudding.

Once again, I agree. This short-term thinking is inherent to hyper-capitalist planning which emphasizes quarterly results and monthly incrementalism, so as to maximize shareholder value, but results in extremely unstable businesses and countless bubbles.  Considering the example I gave in software, so much private equity and venture capital behavior has been designed to build these unsustainable capitalized experiments that return "3-5x" of their value to PEs over a 24-36 month period, that when they finally enter real market conditions and start stumbling with longer-term institutional investors, they become ripe targets for acquisition and dismemberment.  Richard Gere's character from "Pretty Woman" must be sitting pretty with his business model. ;)

 > The issue we now have is that the can has been kicked down the road for so
 > long that there is no painless way to remedy the situation. I strongly
 > belive that everything is going to come to a head later this year or next.

I agree.  At least in software, the entire SaaS model is bloated and the sheer number of entrants in this space far exceeds the demand or business justification for them.  Much like cryptocurrency / NFTs, and the craze surrounding massive returns over short periods of time, software itself has become a speculative asset with very little real value underneath it all.  This is all coming to a head.

Final note - I am in workforce management as an industry, and late last year we started seeing huge shifts that have been building for over a decade, but are unprecedented in their scale.  The Pandemic, the Supply Chain Woes, the Energy Crisis, and even the Wars and geopolitical re-alignment that accompany them -- these are all symptomatic and/or aggrivating factors of a much needed realignment in our entire economic system.  And its collapse will be far worse than anything anyone has ever seen, but it really didn't have to be this way.  Now, however, it's too late - and all of our institutions, from our government to our financial markets, will be liquidated in this process.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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