From ceginfo@u.washington.edu Tue Jun 1 08:29:50 2004 Received: from mxu8.u.washington.edu (mxu8.u.washington.edu [140.142.32.142]) by lists.u.washington.edu (8.12.11+UW04.02/8.12.11+UW04.05) with ESMTP id i51FTnWT102954 for ; Tue, 1 Jun 2004 08:29:50 -0700 Received: from mxout1.cac.washington.edu (mxout1.cac.washington.edu [140.142.32.134]) by mxu8.u.washington.edu (8.12.11+UW04.02/8.12.11+UW04.05) with ESMTP id i51FTnkT019087 for ; Tue, 1 Jun 2004 08:29:49 -0700 Received: from homer40.u.washington.edu (homer40.u.washington.edu [140.142.16.6]) by mxout1.cac.washington.edu (8.12.11+UW04.02/8.12.11+UW04.03) with ESMTP id i51FTm58001899; Tue, 1 Jun 2004 08:29:48 -0700 Received: from localhost (ceginfo@localhost) by homer40.u.washington.edu (8.12.11+UW04.02/8.12.11+UW04.05) with ESMTP id i51FTmoW089510; Tue, 1 Jun 2004 08:29:48 -0700 Date: Tue, 1 Jun 2004 08:29:48 -0700 (PDT) From: Civil and Environmental Engineering To: cegrads@u.washington.edu, faculty@ce.washington.edu Subject: Master's Defense June 8 Marketa McGuire Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII X-Uwash-Spam: Gauge=IIIIIIII, Probability=8%, Report='__TO_MALFORMED_2 0, TO_HAS_SPACES 0.000, SUBJECT_MONTH 0, SUBJECT_MONTH_2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __MIME_VERSION 0, __CT_TEXT_PLAIN 0, __CT 0, __C230066_P2 0, __MIME_TEXT_ONLY 0' The final examination for the MSCE degree for Marketa McGuire will be held on Tuesday, June 8 at 1:30 in More 226. TITLE: MODIS Adjusted Streamflow and Storage Forecasting in the Snake River Basin, ID ABSTRACT: More accurate seasonal streamflow forecasts have the potential to improve water management, especially in areas, like the western U.S., where much of the annual streamflow originates in mountain snowpacks. We describe an approach to seasonal streamflow forecasting for the Snake River that uses the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model in conjunction with updates of the model's initial snow state using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery for winters 2000-2004. We evaluated seasonal streamflow forecasts made on March 1, April 1, and May 1 through the end of July, as well as short lead forecasts for two-week durations beginning on April 15 and May 15 retrospectively for 2000-2003. We also evaluated short lead streamflow forecasts in real-time for a subset of the above forecast dates in 2004. In general, reduction in mean absolute error was greater for the spring two-week forecasts than for the longer seasonal forecasts, and there was some indication that error reduction for the seasonal forecasts was higher for forecasts made later in the spring. Inclusion of the MODIS data resulted in forecast error reduction (or no change in forecasts) in 63% of the seasonal forecasts (71% of the two-week forecasts), while mean absolute error increased in only 37% of the seasonal forecasts (29% of the two-week forecasts). We also evaluated the effect of MODIS updating on reservoir storage volume forecasts using the SnakeSim monthly reservoir operation model. For reservoirs where the model validated well in a retrospective study (i.e., was able to reproduce observed reservoir storages given observed inflows), storage forecast errors were reduced (or unchanged) in 74% of the seasonal forecasts as a result of MODIS updated streamflow forecasts. Results for the retrospective and real-time 2004 streamflow and reservoir storage forecasts all indicated general improvement in accuracy using MODIS, even though 2004 experienced anomalous weather conditions. Professor Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Chair .