Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Aug 19 2005 04:21 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market was very modestly higher all morning, but after noon it
started "slip-sliding away".  It finished higher less than a point.
Volume crawled in a hole, down -18% below average.  More ugliness.

Are you diversified?  I dare say the property you're living in makes-up
a significant chunk of your wealth--given how it's appreciated over
recent years.  I trust you've got the financing of that well under
control in case someone yanks the rug, for this inflation can't go on
forever.  Your job, if any, counts.  And so do your investments, etc.

The problem is those all depend rather too much on the welfare of the
American economy.  Since it has been and is still the powerhouse of the
world economy, that has been a reasonable choice.  But as my "signs &
indications" list showed, the American economy is "whistling by the
graveyard" on a number of issues.  We ought not hold with Alfred E
Newman's motto.

I think you ought to have some of your investing off-shore.  The timing
for this course of action isn't so good, the dollar isn't historically
strong.  Still, "no time like the present", because it will take you
some time to do your research.

I'm not talking some Carribean tax-haven--you should know better.  Nor
am I talking about buying foreign stocks--though some of those who trade
here as ADR's or the like, under the regulations of our stock exchanges,
might be considered.  No, we can't know these foreign companies, foreign
countries, well enough.  I'm suggesting using mutual funds from American
fund families, under our SEC regulations, that have advisors with "boots
on the ground" abroad.  Japan is a case in point.  When we were consumed
by the appearance that "Japan Inc." was going to eat our lunch, who knew
their banking industry was in shambles, holding on to bad debts to
support their kairetsu?  This is where we need mutual fund managers to
professionally manage our money abroad.  Japan is beginning to make a
comeback, but have they done enough?  What about India and China?  We
know they're growing, but are they safe for investors and which
companies really have reliable managements and earnings?

Europe, even with the EU wranglings, is fairly staid and stable,
compared to the rest of the world.  Even considering currency
valuations, it is much like investing in the US--the two economies are
linked.  Some there, but more in the "Emerging Markets".  These are more
likely to have independent paths to profits.  We want good investments,
but ones that aren't highly correlated with the US economy--we've
already got that at home.

Go to Morningstar at the local library and look them up.  Look for long
term track-records, 10 years or more, and consistently superior
performance--to reimburse you for the higher risk.  Bear in mind the
2000-2002 Bear Market.  Remember, the manager is everything.  We have
to pick a good one that has demonstrated his ability in the world
markets.  And then don't risk too much abroad, but remember, that which
we keep here has it's own risks for doing so.  Adventurous, but prudent.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     <___     __|_     _|__     _>__     ___<     08/15
 <___     |___     _|__     _|__     _|__     ___<     08/16
 __<_     |___     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___<     08/17
 _<__     _>__     _|__     _|__     <___     ___<     08/18
 __<_     _>__     _|__     _<__     _<__     ___<     08/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  08/16/05 S&P:    1219
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +25

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Eye of newt, toe of frog, and a side order of fries
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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