Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Oct 27 2004 05:22 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Well, the market didn't calm down today!  Mid-morning oil inventory
numbers were released.  It showed crude inventory had risen, in part
because except for gasoline distillate inventories were lower.  If the
refineries aren't producing distillates, like heating oil, then crude
accumulates.  With apparently no immediate shortage of crude, prices
tumbled about 5% as traders took speculative profits.  With that in
progress, stocks soared.  Prices were up enough to be significant.
They're above all their moving averages, and pushing at the top of the
trading range.  Volume rose to 21% above average.  That definitely makes
it an "Accumulation" day.  The Oscillator turned positive and climbed
above the line.  My timing signal spiked and signalled a BUY!  What more
could you ask for?

This is about as good as it gets.  But does it signal the end of the
summer doldrums, the dreaded October, and the start of the traditional
winter, Santa Claus, rally?  Well, maybe, this is only two days, and
there's still next week. There are plenty of investors on the Street
that would really LIKE to see a rip-roarin' rally.  It's been a long
time since one could really feel good about the direction of the market,
like, last year, if you could forget the previous few.  I'd expect that
given the chance they'd really try to push things, so they could finish
the year another winner.  For short-term money, and depending on how the
outcome of the election settles on the Street, I might be tempted to
join the party.  But I wouldn't be the last to leave, if you take my
meaning.  I wouldn't want a New Year's hangover.  One thing I wouldn't
believe is this is the start of a new major Bull Market.  I just don't
feel confident enough of the economic future, employment in particular.
There were also a lot of confessions about earnings projections this
quarter.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/21
 _<__     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/22
 _<__     _>__     _|__     _>__     _|__     ___<     10/25
 ___|     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/26
 ___>     _>__     __|_     ___>     __>_     ___<     10/27

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... TANSTAAFL There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
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