Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Sep 20 2004 05:33 pm


The market was underwater all day, apparently oil prices rose and
several companies confessed their earnings weren't going to be up to
expectations.  Volume was about normal, with the quadruple witching out
of the way, +1% above average.

You should be aware I never bought into the attitude prevalent earlier
this year that the economy was recovering strongly, and the stock market
would surely soon follow.  So I'm neither surprized nor disappointed by
these "confessions".  My data has been telling a different story.

The story I've been seeing says 2003 was no more than a recovery from an
extremely "over-sold" condition caused by the excessive pessimism of all
the newbie investors who came late to the party of the "Gay 90's", and
got crushed by the inevitable Bear Market.  Like trying to hold a beach-
ball under water in a swimming pool, it will sooner or later squirt to
the side and pop back to the surface.  So 2003 was a reflection of the
past, not a prediction of the future!  I said at the time it was too
far, too fast to be a reliable Bull Market.

I can't remember how many times my commentary has talked about the need
for periods of reflection and re-evaluation after rapid changes in the
market.  Sometimes these things are called "base building".  This year,
2004, has been just such a period.  We have been in a slowly declining
trading range all year.  There was a much shorter one last summer after
the market rose 200pts during the spring.  We need to look at this year
in a much longer perspective of the past decade or so.  Seen from that
perspective, this year doesn't even begin to qualify as base
building--it's just the beginning!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/14
 _|__     _<__     __>_     __|_     __<_     ___>     09/15
 __|_     _<__     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___>     09/16
 __|_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __<_     ___>     09/17
 _<__     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Can you say BACKUP boys and girls? I knew that you could. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .