Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Jul 22 2004 06:41 pm 

The market was below the line until, all together now, 2pm!  Again.
Then it made some minor gains which it managed to keep until the close.
Trading was enthusiastic--volume stayed high, +24% above average.  But
Down-Volume exceeded Up-Volume.  And the ratio of Advancers to Decliners
was 2:3.

So overall, it was a more negative day than just the closing price would
lead one to believe.  The Street appears to be bailing out of anything
marginal.  It seems they don't like prices falling below the 200-day
Moving Average.  I was afraid of that.  Under favorable conditions this
level can encourage buyers to pick-up cheap stock.  Not this time.  This
time it looks like my last Timing Signal (below) was a good one.

There's minor support at 1075, the lower line of this year's trading
range, but I don't really expect that to hold if this move gains some
momentum.

Don't panic, just protect yourself.  As I wrote late last year, when I
also wrote "We need a correction," corrections can have a positive long
term effect.  I think there was too much speculation last year.  Looks
like the Street is going to try to shake the "weak hands" out of their
speculative positions.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/16
 _<__      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/19
 __|_      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/20
 |___      __>_      _|__      ___>      _|__      ___|     07/21
 __|_      _>__      _|__      ___>      _<__      ___|     07/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Poetry isn't obscene . . . it's per verse. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .