Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Jul 12 2004 11:30 pm


Remember what I said last week about directionless markets reacting to
any news coming down the wires?  Today shortly after the market opened
prices fell about 5pts in the first half hour, found a level there and
stayed flat until 2PM, then it jumped up about 7pts and stayed there to
closing.  Volume spiked both times but, as you can see below, closed
lower, -14% below average.  Unless we had access to the same tickers the
trading floor and bull-pens are watching, it's hard to know what they
liked and didn't.  That's OK, we can see what they DID!  That's why I
watch my numbers, and ignore the Street hype.  What they SAY can be
misleading, what they DO is the truth of the matter.

I'm not a "technician", but looking at charts is often a quick and easy
way to appraise the market.  But never forget, the past doesn't PREDICT
the future.  So never use a chart to predict the market.  We can use
them to identify when the present is no longer like the past.

On my charts I currently have three lines pencilled in for this year.
There is my main overhead resistance line flat at 1160.  Until we get
above that with some certainty, I'm not getting enthusiastic.  Then I
pencilled in another declining resistance line through the tops of early
March and late June.  A roughly parallel declining support line is drawn
between the lows of late March and mid-May.  Now we're near the middle
between those lines--it's now a 65pt range.  This parallel lines
"trading range" formation is common in indecisive markets.  As long as
we stay between them, I'd say it's "business as usual" and I'm unlikely
to do anything much.

Some traders sell when it hits the upper resistance line and buy when it
hits the support line.  But one of these days it's going to break out,
and they're going to be wrong.  If you can't recognize when you're
wrong, don't do this!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      |___      _|__      _|__      __|_      ___>     07/06
 __<_      |___      _|__      __|_      __|_      ___>     07/07
 _<__      >___      _|__      __|_      _|__      ___>     07/08
 __<_      _>__      _|__      _|__      __<_      ___>     07/09
 __|_      _>__      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___>     07/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Gilbert & Sullivan the first rappers? Naw... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .