Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Feb 19 2004 06:42 pm


Yesterday's cliff apparently came from a ruling that IBM wasn't allowed
to rip-off it's elderly retirees.  It did it again today, just before
closing.  Volume increased to just less than average.  I didn't get to
check Up-Volume vs Down-Volume, but most of the day prices were up.
Nevertheless, is it news that this ISN'T how rallies behave?  As I said
a while back, if I had some profits to take in a trading situation,
well, I wouldn't be waiting for an engraved invitation.  I'd book the
profits.  There'll be days for buying stocks to come.

If you want to look far ahead and speculate on the progress of the
market, there's a Support line under the market.  Draw a line across the
tops last year, from September to December.  The market penetrated that
line in December.  From resistance it now became support.  Now it looks
like we've got a Resistance level at, say, 1160.  Extrapolate those
lines till they meet.  It creates a triangle with a rising bottom.  OK,
now lets suppose these lines continue to influence the market for the
next month or two, bouncing off the lower Support Line, shying away from
the Resistance Line.  The longer that goes on, the more constricted the
range.  Eventually something's got to give.  Know what happened last
time?  We had this sort of formation back in 2000, though it was a
"bigger, stronger" formation with a longer Support line and longer
Resistance line.  I was telling the Street "don't go there" when it
dived for the support line, but it broke through and you know what
happened next!  There's no sense of inevitability about this, but if I
saw the same thing setting up, I'd be protecting myself!  You read it
here first.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      |___      __|_      _>__      _>__      ___<     02/12
 _|__      |___      __|_      _>__      _|__      ___<     02/13
 __|_      _|__      __|_      _>__      __|_      ___<     02/17
 _|__      _|__      __|_      _>__      _|__      ___|     02/18
 _|__      _|__      __|_      _|__      _|__      ___|     02/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paul.rogers@angelfire.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Puns are bad, but poetry is verse! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .