Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Dec 18 2003 06:37 pm

My formulas call this an Accumulation day.  It's the combination of
price change and volume as compared with recent short-term moving
averages that I'm looking at.  However, this is a "quadruple witching"
week of expiring options and futures.  That usually causes higher
volume, so we should look beneath just the final numbers.  Both during
the morning and evening there were short rallies with spikes in volume
on the NYSE.  That's positive action.  There weren't any significant
sags during the day either.  Prices also pushed up through this rising
tops overhead resistance.  So I'm inclined to credit the positive action
today.

I'd like to see this behavior continue the first part of next week, then
we might entertain the idea of a long awaited Santa Claus Rally driving
the market for the next couple weeks.  Don't go overboard though, it's a
short term thing, and then comes January, when everybody's likely to be
watching market behavior as much or more than they are their own
positions.

There is another clue in a different direction we might look at.  IPO
activity is up lately.  I wouldn't chase any of them, they usually pull
back after the initial excitement wears off and some of the preferred
investors, that actually got IPO stock, start taking their profits.
IPO's have in the recent past been unrealistically over-priced--a way
for the owners to cash out quick.  That's not what I mean.  I think it
shows us one more step of the market returning to normal, that
investment bankers are fairly convinced the Bear is back snoozing in his
den.

We ought not expect next year to resemble the past three quarters.  We
should continue to use good conservative strategies and tactics--a
correction in the next few months wouldn't surprize me at all, after
this move.  But I'm inclined to return to fully invested allocations,
albeit looking to new stocks to lead the market this time.  Give the
computers, internet, high-tech, and telecommunications a rest for a
while.  And be wary of a "China bubble"--haven't we learned a lesson?
If you want to play that game, you know what happens so be primed to
pull the trigger when these things reach unsustainable values.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _>__      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/12
 _>__      _>__      __|_      __<_      _|__      ___|     12/15
 __|_      _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     12/16
 __|_      _|__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     12/17
 __>_      _|__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___|     12/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  11/24/03 S&P:    1052
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... They also surf, who only stand on waves.... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .