Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Oct 08 2003 07:31 pm

The Bulls are still lying in the grass.  Volume was below yesterday, and
-8% below average.  That's no sign of enthusiastic buyers.  Prices
closed off modestly.

This afternoon, after glancing at a headline about the Tyco executives
trial, I was wondering what this sort of thing teaches us about our
tactics as investors.  I think we all ought to think real hard about how
we invest.  Who knows when the next Tyco will attract us?  The issue
here is: How do you handle an investment in a stock which makes an
obvious, strong move and becomes famous for it's gains?  Krispy Kreme is
an obvious example.  After all, even when corporate fraud isn't
involved, we all know stocks that make strong gains usually go too far
and correct.  Boston Chicken, anyone?

Do you avoid them altogether?  Do you "average-in" on the way up?  You
won't know where it's going to hit its top.  Do you wait for clear signs
of topping, and then bail or average-out?  Or do you average-out on the
way up, and watch it go on its way.  Do you feel bad when you don't
catch the gravy train, or get off too soon?  Remember what I just said,
"The market and stock prices are at best 50% Fundamentals, and at least
50% Psychology."

Humans have the capacity of imagination.  I think we can use that to our
advantage, if we actually USE it.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      >___      __|_      _>__      __>_      ___|     10/02
 __>_      >___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___|     10/03
 __>_      |___      __|_      |___      __>_      ___|     10/06
 __>_      _|__      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___|     10/07
 _>__      _>__      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     10/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Entropy isn't what it used to be. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .