Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Oct 03 2003 05:40 pm

I don't like it!!  Yesterday the market closed at 1020.  There was some
good news about employment, and you know I've been saying all along jobs
are critical to this economy and it's position in the world.  The market
opened at 1025, a true gap up.  Usually when the market appears to gap
at the open it doesn't really, it just moves so fast in the first moment
or two that the charts appear to show a gap.  Today's market did that
too!  Within minutes it was up at 1035!  During mid-day it nearly
reached 1040.  But then in mid-afternoon it all came apart again,
closing at only 1030, with "good" volume going into the close.  Volume
for the day was up +16% above average.

At first blush the numbers would lead one to believe this was a good day
in the market, perhaps the follow-through to Wednesday's move up.  I
don't think so.  Somebody either got cold feet, or some big money
managers used the opportunity to "sell into strength".  That shouldn't
be a new concept to you now.  Is this a suggestion the market can be
manipulated?  "I'm shocked.  Shocked!"

Well to quote from another old movie, "the game's afoot."  We should be
seeing how this all resolves next week.

When you're playing in the market you have to keep aware of the whole
picture, long term to short, and pay attention to what both have to tell
you.  Remember Rogers' Second Law, "everything you do communicates."

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      |___      _|__      _>__      _<__      ___|     09/29
 _|__      |___      _|__      __>_      _|__      ___|     09/30
 ___>      >___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___|     10/01
 __>_      >___      __|_      _>__      __>_      ___|     10/02
 __>_      >___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___|     10/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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