Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Sep 26 2003 06:15 pm 

Today prices dropped another few points, volume was down but still +11%
above average.  If all you looked at was prices, as most of the news
reports do, this might not look like much.  But the numbers and charts I
look at suggest this movement is gaining momentum.

My 5% Exponential Moving Average, designed to filter some "signal" from
all the noise, my timing signal, has fallen below zero and continued to
fall.  This is more than just "noise".  As prices are falling, volume is
above average, and the average is rising.  The Oscillator, representing
the movement of the entire NYSE, looks something like a "Head and
Sholders" formation over the past couple months, rather than the "tops
above tops" formation of prices.  That tells me this most recent price
peak was much weaker than it appeared.  The Oscillator is below zero and
also continues to fall.  It's falling so much it's turning the Summation
Index around.

Taken individually, no single indicator can be taken as a reliable
signal.  But right now I'm seeing confirmation that the current
direction is downward.  My timing signal got it right this time.  It
looks to me like this is the usual fall, Sep-Oct, correction starting.
The main question I have now is whether the mutual fund managers are
going to pile on or sit pat.  And if earnings begin to come in better
than expected, and expectations have been pretty optimistic, this could
turn around.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _|__      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___>     09/22
 __<_      |___      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     09/23
 _<__      <___      __|_      ___>      _<__      ___>     09/24
 _<__      <___      _|__      __>_      _<__      ___>     09/25
 _<__      <___      _|__      __>_      _<__      ___|     09/26

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  09/24/03 S&P:    1009
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +19

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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