Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Jul 25 2003 03:53 pm

Today the Market continued falling during the first part of the morning,
then fought its way back.  During the afternoon it went on a tear and
closed up nicely.  So what is our first question?  "Di'ja mean it?"
Volume was -1% below average.  So, "not really."  There was news that
some of Saddam's bodyguards may have been captured, so this was just a
one-day "feel good" rally, in my book.  I've got my story and I'm
sticking to it!

I want to see the Market put in some sort of "technical support level"
that will satisfy the Street.  Right now we're like a tightrope walker
working without a net, and I don't like it.  This current tight little
1012-976 trading range we've been in for the past couple months is
entirely too tight.  That's why I wouldn't mind seeing it fall to 935
this summer and bounce off.  It could drift down there for lack of
interest during the summer vacation.  There are other investors who have
the same line pencilled in their charts, who would reconsider at that
point.  It could well find bargain hunters.  That would provide the sort
of support I'm looking for.  If it doesn't prompt buyers, then it's not
support and without confident buyers at some level, we're still in a
Bear Market.  I want to know at what price buyers just can't help
themselves.  That's what a "technical support level" is all about.
Taken too far, technical analysis can become hocus-pocus, but it does
have some reasonable roots.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      |___      _|__      _<__      <___      ___<     07/21
 __<_      |___      __|_      __<_      |___      ___<     07/22
 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      |___      ___<     07/23
 _<__      |___      __|_      __|_      |___      ___<     07/24
 __>_      |___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     07/25

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/22/03 S&P:    988
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Remember when unsafe sex was being caught in the act. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .