Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Jul 01 2003 07:22 pm

Take your pick, you could read whatever you want into today's action.
In mid-morning prices plunged with a spike in volume, then in mid-
afternoon it rose on higher volume.  I'd say the afternoon move was the
stronger of the two.

But I think it's important to recognize that Market action is being
strongly affected by the moment to moment news stories that come down
the wire.  That tells me the "bounce-back" reaction that powered this
rally has faded.  In the absence of a streak of bad news, and if Q2
confessions are subdued and earnings are decent, this could give the
Market time to "digest" these gains and maybe for a horizontal "base" to
develop.  That could give a winter rally a footing to get going.

That's just another way of giving investors and technicians an idea that
the Market reflects current perceptions of fair market value--typically
called a "support level".  It's not to say that I've changed my mind
about the beneficial effect of a noticable correction--say to 935.

At this point we're similar to a high-wire walker without a net.  Many
investors are concerned we've over-shot on the up-side.  Putting in a
convincing support level would act as that safety net.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _<__      __>_      _|__      <___      ___<     06/25
 __<_      _<__      __>_      _|__      _|__      ___<     06/26
 _<__      <___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     06/27
 _<__      <___      __|_      __|_      _>__      ___<     06/30
 __|_      <___      __|_      _|__      _|__      ___<     07/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Who would imagine that i2 = -1 ? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .