Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Jun 19 2003 07:26 pm

Well, that's a start.  Prices were down and volume was up, but only 3%
above average.  It would have had to be at least 10% above average to
have qualified as a Distribution Day.

Since this analysis and commentary is "Market Action", I don't often say
much about mutual funds.  Yesterday I mentioned a reallocation, while
the Market was still surging ahead, while I was expecting a forthcoming
correction.  Perhaps I should mention that the 7% Solution applies to
stocks, but not mutual funds.  We all know now stocks can crater!  That
hadn't been so obvious for many years.  We've seen 30-40% drops in a day
on some disappointing announcement.  But major, diversified mutual funds
should be little affected if that happened to one of their holdings.  So
I adjust my allocations for major economic disturbance, for some major
change in the fund management or goals, if management shows incompetence
matching expected performance of that type of fund, or a significant
change in my outlook or situation.  Mutual funds have much less
volatility than stocks, so investing rules must take that into account.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      __>_      __>_      _|__      _|__      ___>     06/13
 __>_      __>_      ___>      _<__      __|_      ___>     06/16
 __>_      __>_      ___>      __<_      __<_      ___>     06/17
 _>__      __>_      __>_      _<__      _<__      ___>     06/18
 _|__      __<_      __>_      __|_      _<__      ___|     06/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... 90% of the time I'm right, why worry about the other 3%? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .