Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Jan 17 2003 04:26 pm

My Timing Signal wanted to Sell today, but then when we're so obviously
in a short-term Horizontal Trading Range, still within an overall Bear
Market, one should have been skeptical about the Buy Signal.  Only a
Trader should be paying attention to such signals.  I don't have a
"Target" for this Correction, if that's what it is.  But I've got a
possible Support Line pencilled-in at 875.  Then again, the other end of
my pencil has an eraser.

Overall there was quite enough news to make the Street grumpy today.
It's still afraid there won't be an economic recovery this year.  That's
as may be, but for me the point is that spiral staircases go both up and
down.  If this keeps spiraling downward we might have to start thinking
of a different "D" word!

McDonalds has announced it's going to stop giving earnings advisories.
One might think that would help cut volatility.  It's not going to stop
analysts from trying to look over their shoulder.  The preannouncement
(when earnings were good) and confession (when they weren't) season
which has dominated the Market over the past several years has been no
more than the Street and investors wanting to take risk out of the
Market.  Someone was quoted today saying, "Uncertainty is evil".  Sorry,
what you're asking for, certainty about the future, isn't available.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     01/13
 __>_      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/14
 _<__      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/15
 _<__      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/16
 _<__      _|__      _|__      __|_      _<__      ___>     01/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/17/03 S&P:    902
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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