Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Dec 10 2002 04:59 pm

If you think I'm "picking on your guy" because you don't want to think
about the possibility that a failing economy could lead to the downfall
of another Bush Administration, you're choosing to not pay attention to
a warning.  Don't let your politics confuse your investing.  It's a
little like a stock dropping 7% below where you bought it warning you it
can go down as well as up, and you ignoring the warning to hang on for
the ride down!  Front page news in today's Investor's Business Daily is,
"Consumer Sentiment Tumbles In Dec., Slumping To Its Lowest Level This
Year."

Also in today's paper is an article about consultants Accenture
identifying the "emergence of pervasive computers and cheap, networked
sensors will have a profound impact on the future of business."
Remember, you read it here first when I talked about "hard-shell
microprocessors" with reference to Intel six or eight weeks ago.  Why
did THEY get the big bucks for it?

There was also an article suggesting "Small Caps May Lag This Time
Around".  I suggest caution when you see this sort of thing.  They
pulled data from Bear Markets going back as far as 1954.  Now, without
endorsing the famous four words, "this time it's different," there ARE
differences between the investing environment of the past decade and
half a century ago.  For one, back then there were far fewer individual
investors!  The access available to individual investors, to data and
research resources as well as to trading vehicles, was far more
restricted.  So keep in mind that things DO change over time, and you'll
have to carefully judge whether traditional trends are still relevant,
and what differences might mean.  Don't believe everything you read,
except here, of course.  ;-)

The Fed?  Did it meet today?  Who cares!  It has shot its wad.

In other news of dubious value, my Timing Signal reversed itself today.
Since Volume was -11% below average and the Advance:Decline ratio was a
decidedly negative 1:2, I think today's action is suspect.  If I was a
Dollar Cost Averager I'd buy, but then the Signal would be irrelevant
anyhow.  If I was a Momentum Player or looking to add some bargains to
my portfolio, I think I'd wait.  The "reason" for today's action I saw
today was supposed to be anticipating a "Santa Claus Rally", but I don't
see it!

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _|__      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___>     12/05
 __<_      _|__      __|_      _<__      __<_      ___>     12/06
 _<__      _|__      _|__      _<__      _<__      ___>     12/07
 _<__      _|__      _|__      _<__      _<__      ___>     12/09
 __<_      _|__      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  12/10/02 S&P:    904
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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