Subj : Re: "Serenity" dropping off in the Box Office take...
To   : alt.tv.farscape
From : Ken McElhaney
Date : Fri Oct 14 2005 09:27:28

From Newsgroup: alt.tv.farscape


Trouble wrote:
> Ken McElhaney wrote:
>
> > Trouble wrote:
>
> >> If you read any of the script writers mags they have said the last
> >> REAL big budget movie to get made was Pearl Harbor at $135M, and
> >> probably will be for a long time.
>
> >> Riddick came out after I read that... Hollywood insiders get burned
> >> on big budget movie, after other Hollywood insiders predict the era
> >> of big budget movies is over... hmmmm
>
> > Besides, studio chiefs and producers are a better source
> > of info.
>
> Nope this was an interview with the director, they put all sorts of
> director producer studio info in there, if you don't know what people are
> green lighting, your work will not sell, there are pages in the back on
> what has sold, what was greenlighted, and what studios are looking for. I
> actually buy it for the writing, and interviews, but the industry stuff
> is a neat window into what's going on.

Sounds interesting, is there a website address to view?

> > I believe "Serenity" has limited appeal and the box office so far is
> > proving that theory right.  I can understand why sci-fi nuts are
> > bonkers for anything Whedon, but that doesn't mean the public in
> > general is in love with him.  Yes, he's a damn good talent and has
> > produced some interesting stuff.
>
> Actually I know of a lot of SF nuts and geeks that agree with you, they
> also didn't get Buffy, or Angel.

There is a quantitative differece between "Brilliant" & "Accessable".
Whedon may indeed be a great talent, but his work simply cannot be
appreciated by a wide audience. I think "Serenity" may be one of those
examples.

> >> Serentity II Electric Boogaloo is still only going to be a $39-50M
> >> movie, not some SF extravaganza like Rama is going to be... or the
> >> Star Wars prequels were.
>
> > Assuming it makes the aformentioned ticket sales goals.  If it
> > staggers in under $50 million domestic, I highly doubt a studio will
> > pick up the tab for a sequel.
>
> Since the goal is $80M I think that's a safe bet someone at the studios
> has said back of the envelope that's the least it could make and still
> get greenlighted.

Is that $80 million domestic? Does it include the international market?
Does it include DVD sales? This may be where the $50 million budget
figure comes in since print and promotion costs have to be at least $10
million.  For a studio to spend $50 million total to gain $30 million
(which no doubt is divided up with percentages to other folk) seems to
send the message that a potential sequel will have to ride on other
factors if it's going to get made.  Now, there have been exceptions
("Hellboy", which barely broke even at the box office has a sequel in
the works), but "Serenity" had a decent public build-up and was
released at the optimal time I would think (no real competition).  So
$80 mil sounds a bit low to me, but perhaps it's enough assuming the
sequel costs less than the original to make.

Ken

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