Subj : Re: Lookin' for oil
To   : Deuce
From : Angus McLeod
Date : Fri Sep 02 2005 10:17:00

  Re: Re: Lookin' for oil
  By: Deuce to Angus McLeod on Thu Sep 01 2005 21:40:00

 >  > But the idea that every effort must be directed to finding petroleum 
 >  > for you to *burn* (and that so long as you are able to burn 
 >  > petroleum no other efforts are necessary) is not reasonable.
 > 
 > I'm saying that until a renewable source is found, yes, every effort must be
 > directed to finding me a way to get to work.

I *know* that this is your position, and I believe it is a bad position to 
hold.  And here is why.  You say that "until a renewable source is found" 
you want "every effort directed" to getting you to work.
          ^^^^^
But if every effort is directed to finding you gasolene, how is a 
renewable energy source to be found?

 > I am not saying that nobody should be looking for renewable sources...

But that is EXACTLY what you are saying.  Because is *every* effort is to 
be directed towards keeping your gas-guzzler guzzling, who will be doing 
the looking?

 > ...but if there's a real danger of me not being able to switch (as 
 > there currently is) things will go VERY badly for everyone.

Precisely.  According to you, it is not feasible to switch at present due 
to economic forces.  But if you want all resources directed to keeping the 
river of gasolene flowing, how will that situation ever change?

 > Stopping oil exploration won't find a renewable energy source any 
 > faster.  Taking all the engineers out of the oil business won't find me 
 > a renewable source any faster.

I at least, am not advocating the surcease of oil exploration.  I am 
advocating that efforts be made to not only identify possible 
alternatives, but to push such technologies in the direction of economic 
viability.  A large factor in bringing the cost of such (or any) 
technology down, is to make its use widespread, so economies of scale 
kick in.

I would like to see the government take an active part in this, by 
eliminating taxes that push alternative technologies in the direction of 
economic non-viability.  Possibly raising taxes on gasolene, and giving
grants to reseadch in alternative fuels.  These technologies need to be 
encouraged to flourish.

 > You seem to believe that people should stop looking for more ways of powerin
 > the existing infrastructure and concentrate solely on some hypothetical futu
 > one.

No, I believe that people should be looking HARD for alternative power 
sources ('hypothetical', if you like).

YOU seem to think that one day someone is going to discover that if you 
squeeze sand hard enough, or boil water hot enough, some miraculous liquid 
will come pouring out that you will be able to burn in your old car simply 
by changing the sparkplugs.  And that day, or over the weekend, the entire 
world will be able to switch over from gasolene.  *I* think that it will 
take several decades to make any switch to the new technologies.  The 
existing infrastructure will be replaced in time by a different 
infrastructure.  All the old petrol-burners will be replaced because they 
are old and worn out, and in the mean time, the cars driven by brushless
motors and powered by hydrogen fuel-cells buffered by lithium-sulfer 
batteries and leeching extra energy from the sun with solar-reactive paint 
and from the ground with magneto-dynamic suspension will be everywhere.

I think it is folly to believe that we can just "direct *every* effort" to 
finding new supplies of gasolene, and assume that the day there IS no more 
gasolene to be found, that some 'hypothetical' replacement fuel will come 
bubbling up out of the ground of it's own free will, ready to be poured 
into the tanks of our "existing infrastructure" with only minimal, low- 
cost modifications being made.  The truth is, the existing infrastructure 
must be replaced with a new infrastructure, and that will take many years.  
The process needs to start as soon as possible, giving us as much time as 
possible so the change can be as gradual (and painless) as possible.  And 
if "every effort" is directed towards finding more gasolene, that process 
will *never* start.

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