Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Oct 07 2005 07:16 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Yesterday I said it's common to get "snap-back" behavior after a
significant change in prices.  That's what we got today.  Prices jumped
at the open, and after a reaction of its own, they managed to hold on to
modest gains all day.  Volume sank to just 1% above average.  (Did'ja
mean it?  No, not really.)

The newsbots & analysts are expected to have a "reason" for everything
the market does, and today it was a jobs report.  But the report said
jobs did NOT fall as much as expected as a result of the Gulf Coast
disaster, and wages improved.  There's a problem for the analysts with
that--employment demand and higher wages increase producer prices and
lead to inflation.  Inflation leads to the FOMC raising rates.  Rising
rates lead to lower stock prices.

So, with the volume clue (even though average volume is now higher than
it has been in two years as a result of recent action), I think we can
say today's action was no more than a normal snap-back, hung around the
neck of the nearest apparent rationale.  The low volume suggests the
direction is still lower.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     _|__     __|_     __>_     __>_     __<_     10/03
 _|__     _|__     _|__     __>_     _>__     __<_     10/04
 <___     _>__     _|__     ___>     _<__     __<_     10/05
 _<__     __>_     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     10/06
 __<_     __>_     _|__     __>_     _<__     __<_     10/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/04/05 S&P:    1214
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -13

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... I'm sorry my karma ran over your dogma
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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