Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Sep 29 2005 07:02 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The morning's session was a "W" shape, all below the line.  Then just
before lunch prices jumped and held their gains.  That happened three
more times during the afternoon session.  That seems to me most likely
to be some large institutional orders.  It's suspiciously close to the
end of the quarter, so I rather suspect it's no more than "window
dressing".  Gee, if you can't trust your mutual/pension funds' quarterly
reports to reflect the actual quarter, who can you trust?

At the close prices were up more than 10pts, when 12.7pts would be
significant.  That's nice.  But volume was only +9% above average, so my
formula doesn't call it an outright "Accumulation" day.  But accumulated
price action lately has caused "momentum" to cross from negative to
positive, triggering my "Buy" timing signal.

Well, I'll take that under advisement.  There was a "Sell" signal last
week, so this is a little soon to be a reliable signal.   The end of the
quarter means October is here, and with that many mutual funds' FY-End.
Depending on their current positions and their expectations for the year
to come, there could be even more volatility in the market as they
adjust their portfolios.  At this point just what they're planning is a
closely guarded secret, lest competitors "game" the market.  So I
wouldn't try to guess what's likely happen--up, down, well, I called it
"volatility" on purpose.  Let's just watch what happens and try to
interpret what that tells us.  We'll see if things are positive enough
for a "Santa Claus" rally.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _|__     _|__     __>_     <___     __<_     09/23
 __|_     _<__     _|__     __>_     _|__     __<_     09/26
 __|_     _<__     _|__     __>_     _>__     __<_     09/27
 __|_     _<__     _|__     __>_     _>__     __<_     09/28
 __>_     _<__     __|_     __>_     _>__     __<_     09/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/06/05 S&P:    1233
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Let us taunt it; perhaps it will become cross, & go away
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---
 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

.