Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Sep 22 2005 08:40 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The morning session was pretty tough, but around lunch time the Street
got wind that Rita had been downgraded and things got a little more
optimistic.  Prices were up modestly at the close, and volume was still
high, +25% above average.  In the broad market there was a bias toward
declininers, but up-volume and down-volume were about even.  So a lot of
stock was moving, but on the whole it wasn't especially positive or
negative.

On strategies, have you ever considered the impact of "Nyquist-Shannon
anti-aliasing frequencies" on your tracking?  I track daily closing
prices of the market, and Thursday's weekly prices for my mutual funds.
Is that good enough?

Nyquist & Shannon discovered when measuring a fluctuating signal one
must sample it at least twice as fast as the highest frequency one wants
to detect.  When one samples less often, totally spurious cyclic effects
can appear.  So my daily tracking wouldn't allow me to analyze my data
for cyclic effects faster than every other day for the S&P, or biweekly
for my mutual funds.  It's the same effect as looking out a window
through sheer curtains and a screen, and seeing Moire patterns.

Think that's irrelevant?  What it says is the sort of monthly or
quarterly reports we get from our investment firms are virtually useless
for any analysis.  It's nice to be reminded of our balances, and our
current investments--look at it and file it.  We need to take action on
our own.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _|__     __|_     ___>     _<__     __|_     09/16
 _|__     _|__     __|_     __>_     _|__     __|_     09/19
 _|__     _|__     _|__     ___>     <___     __|_     09/20
 _<__     _|__     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     09/21
 __<_     _|__     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     09/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/06/05 S&P:    1233
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Cats don't need any excuses. -- Robert A. Heinlein
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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