Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Sep 16 2005 07:17 pm

Content-type: text/plain

I'm not sure I completely trust the market statistics I got today;
mistakes happen.  I didn't believe the volume number Yahoo Finance
reported, so I went to other sources--which obviously disagreed.  What
I'm going with for now suggests this was an "Accumulation Day".  Prices
appear to have risen around 80% to being up significantly on their own,
and volume "may have been" 35% above average.  (I'll revise that if I
get better data.)  But for now I have to call that an "Accumulation"
day, when the Street was BUYING!

OK, now, let's keep political judgement & commentary out of this, but
the President says he's going to spend $200B on Katrina, on top of the
Afghanistan and Iraq wars, and he's not going to raise taxes to pay for
it.  Yes, a little will come from budget revisions and "the Bridge to
Nowhere".  But primarily it will add to Federal deficits.  It doesn't
matter what we think about that--it's going to happen.

Now, allowing for Greenspan's "conundrum" about why longer term interest
rates haven't BEEN higher, in the past that sort of Federal borrowing
has always led to higher long-term interest rates--the ones the Fed
can't do anything about.  So what does that mean for us?

We should expect that to affect the housing market.  Home loan rates are
going to go up.  Those risky "interest only" & "Super ARM" loans people
have been using to buy more house than they can afford are going to be
shocking home owners.  Some are going to be in serious trouble.  We
should be protecting ourselves from rising long-term rates.  We should
expect it to have wide-spread effects in investing, as long-term
fixed-interest contracted investments become more lucrative and
attractive than market risk in stocks.  Things are going to change and
we need to be prepared.

I've been suggesting for months that we need to be preparing more
conservative, traditional investing strategies for the forseeable
future.  Hello?  Is anybody listening?

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _>__     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     09/12
 _|__     _>__     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___>     09/13
 _<__     _>__     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     09/14
 __<_     _|__     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     09/15
 __<_     _|__     __|_     ___>     _<__     __|_     09/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/06/05 S&P:    1233
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Nobody expects a fannish imposition!
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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