Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Sep 08 2005 08:21 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market was pretty ugly again today.  Prices were underwater and sank
more after the oil futures market closed.  Traders keep reacting to
every little change, rather than backing off some and allowing things
more room to fluctuate.  Volume fell some too, but was still +5% above
average.

We might learn something from Katrina.  In the past decision makers
presumed they had all the time they wanted to take the actions they knew
were necessary.  They tried to get by, "on the cheap."  For the lack of
giving the Army Corps of Engineers the tens of millions they needed to
fix the levees, now the consequential damages will run into billions.
Now those same decision makers are going to be making decisions in an
emotionally charged atmosphere.  I don't think their decisions now are
going to be any better.

We do the same thing with our investing decisions.  We dawdle when we
have the time to do what we know we should.  We try to make up for it
when it's too late, when we're "under the gun", when the immediate
concerns play too large a role in making the right long-term decision.

We need to build investing strategies and tactics that make us do the
right things when we have the time and prevent us from doing the wrong
things when we feel we just HAVE to do something.  Right now we need to
be thinking about what we would do if we get a traditional November and
December rally, and what we'd do if the Bear Market returned.  What
would you buy?  What would you sell?  Then you need to keep track of
changes for the next few months.

But then you know all that.  Still, how successful we are over the long
term as an investor depends as much on self-discipline as knowing all
the "tricks of the trade."

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _<__     __|_     ___|     __>_     __<_     09/01
 _>__     _<__     _|__     _>__     __>_     __<_     09/02
 ___>     _<__     __|_     __|_     __>_     __<_     09/06
 __>_     _|__     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     09/07
 _>__     _>__     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     09/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/06/05 S&P:    1233
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Sexy: Uses feather.     Kinky: Uses entire chicken.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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