Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Aug 31 2005 06:16 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices were up and down, but not too far from the line for the first
half of the session.  Then they marched steadily higher into the close.
Prices closed 93% of the way to significance, but more importantly
volume increased to 26% above average.  Not only does that qualify as an
"Accumulation" day, in spades, revealing buying interest we haven't seen
in a LONG time, but it was enough to pull my Momentum indicator, below,
into positive territory--signalling Buy!  Well, not so fast, Bunky.
You'll also notice the Oscillator has turned positive.

What happened?  Although Katrina was VERY destructive--the Big Easy
isn't going to be for a long time to come--estimates have come down.
The President has decided it's OK to loan oil from the Stretgic
Petroleum Reserve to refiners, covering short-term shortages.  And the
Philly Fed President suggested between spiking oil prices, and the
economic effects of Katrina, it might be possible for the FOMC to
slacken on the rate rises for a while.  It all sounded good to the
Street.

It's nice to see there was some money on the side that could come into
the market, but I'd call this something of a "Relief Rally".  Those are
nice, good to sell into, but it doesn't take long to exhale--they're
over too soon and we're back to worrying.  So it's nice to see, but I
wouldn't be buying on tomorrow's open.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _>__     _|__     _<__     _|__     ___<     08/25
 _<__     _>__     _|__     _<__     _|__     ___<     08/26
 __|_     _>__     _|__     _<__     _|__     __<_     08/29
 _|__     _>__     _|__     __<_     _|__     __<_     08/30
 __>_     _|__     __|_     ___|     __>_     __<_     08/31

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/31/05 S&P:    1220
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Cats don't need any excuses. -- Robert A. Heinlein
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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