Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Aug 22 2005 06:42 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Lay a "P" down flat and that's about the shape of today's chart.  It was
nice going in.  By noon it was back to flat, and it hugged the line all
afternoon.  That's ugly.  Volume increased a little, but was still -13%
below average.  That doesn't make it less ugly.

This sort of action clearly says there's no enthusiasm for the market.
A similar interpretation applies to charts of individual stocks, and to
longer term charts.  There's a whole catalog of chart formations and
interpretations, but don't pay too much attention to those.  First,
when those are too obvious they can be fake-outs--the contrarians go the
other way.  Second, it can prevent us from seeing behavior that is
indicative, but not common nor cataloged--like today.

For the past week, when prices dropped to just above the 50-day moving
average, they've been bouncing along just a point or two above the
average.  The average seems to be behaving as a "support line".  That's
not necessarily a signal to go bargain hunting.  If prices fell below it
wouldn't be catastrophic, but it would certainly be negative--the next
level of support I see would be the 200-day average, below 1200.  So any
bargain hunting needs to be VERY provisional.  Keep your finger near the
trigger.  We're still waiting for the mutual funds to do their year-end
clean-up.  Their selling could push prices down over the next couple
months.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 <___     |___     _|__     _|__     _|__     ___<     08/16
 __<_     |___     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___<     08/17
 _<__     _>__     _|__     _|__     <___     ___<     08/18
 __<_     _>__     _|__     _<__     _<__     ___<     08/19
 __|_     _>__     _|__     _<__     _>__     ___<     08/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  08/16/05 S&P:    1219
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +25

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Poetry isn't obscene . . . it's per verse.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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