Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Aug 12 2005 06:41 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market was underwater all day.  They closed down over half-way to
being significant, but volume shrank to -10% below average.  So there
was no stampede for the door.  Not much to say, just a funky day.

So let's call this, "Signs and indications":

# Real estate bubble. Clues: Speculators driving prices. Lenders
offer cheap money, short-term loans. Home-equity loans fund
short-term spending. Fed chairman sees minimal froth.
# Energy and oil bubble. Clues: Crude hits another record.
Political turmoil in oil-producing nations. Consumers buy
gas-guzzlers at record pace. GM, Ford in trouble.
# Foreign-trade deficit. Clues: Monthly deficits top $50 billion.
This year's deficit will beat 2004's $617 billion. Foreigners now
own $2.5 trillion of America.
# Federal-budget deficit. Clues: Federal debt now $7.8 trillion;
add another $400 federal deficit this year.
# Corporate pensions underfunded. Clues: Airlines, auto, other
manufacturers heavily burdened, default to taxpayers.
# Local government pensions deficits. Clues: A near $400 billion
mess draining local taxpayer resources.
# Weak U.S. dollar. Clues: Fear China and other foreign powers
will replace dollar reserves. Warren Buffett now betting $20
billion on foreign-currency hedging.
# Social Security deficit. Clues: No choice, cut benefits or
raise taxes; politicians hate both, so it'll get worse.
# Health-care costs. Clues: Burden shifting to employees. Costs
above inflation. 43 million uninsured.
# Medicare deficit. Clues: Going broke faster than Social
Security. Prescription drug benefit added an unfunded $8.1
trillion. Long-term estimates over $36.6 trillion.
# Personal-savings shortfall. Clues: We consume not save.
National savings rate is zero, down from 8% two decades ago.
Average household net worth less than $15,000, excluding home
equity.
# Consumer debt bubble. Clues: We're living beyond our means.
Consumer debt at $2 trillion. At 13%, household interest as a
percent of income is at all-time high. Personal bankruptcies
rising.
# War and defense deficit. Clues: Iraq and Afghanistan wars cost
over $200 billion a year, $2 trillion a decade.
# Homeland insecurity. Clues: Minimal legislation to protect
ports and chemical plants. Federal budget even cut border patrol
90%. Vigilantes patrolling.
# Class gap widening. Clues: Superrich and CEOs getting
increasing share of wealth, ownership and tax cuts.
# Congressional pork. Clues: Both parties act like teenage
addicts on a spending spree with stolen credit cards. By not
using the veto, the administration acts like a parent who needs
Nanny 911.
# International credibility. Clues: Image problems: Post-9/11
imperialism, WMDs, Abu Ghraib, Gitmo and more.
# Junk mailings. Clues: Mail solicitations increasing for credit
cards and hot stock newsletters.
# New "Mad Money" cable show. Clues: Frantic, manic
entertainment; 1990s irrational exuberance again.
# Numerous key mini-bubbles. Environmental, resources,
technology, educational, outsourcing, jobs, you pick!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     <___     __|_     _<__     <___     ___|     08/08
 __<_     <___     __|_     __<_     <___     ___<     08/09
 _|__     <___     __|_     __<_     _|__     ___<     08/10
 __>_     <___     __|_     __|_     _>__     ___<     08/11
 _>__     <___     __|_     _>__     _>__     ___<     08/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Nice computers don't go down.
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