Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Aug 05 2005 06:21 pm

Content-type: text/plain

I don't know if you've noticed that sometimes I pass on news in my
commentary, sometimes not.  In the final analysis, what the Street
thinks about the news is shown by the market action.  It doesn't really
matter what the news is, the price & volume action says it all.  In the
long run it doesn't even matter what the Street's response was.

Today, jobs data was released and it was "better" than expected--and it
really wasn't all that good.  July's 227K new jobs were only the fourth
highest in the past 12 months; October, February and April were higher,
one of them nearly 300K.  You'd have thought something terrible had
happened.  Prices fell all morning and never got any better.  The ratio
of Advancers to Decliners was about 2:7.  Volume declined a bit, to +2%
above average.  So while there was definitely selling, it seems the main
thing was: buyers dried up.  Buyers have been hard to find for the past
two weeks--the daily volume percentage change has been in single digits.

Prices fell below my 20-day Moving Average.  That's an "alert".

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _<__     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___|     08/01
 __|_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___|     08/02
 __|_     _<__     __>_     __|_     __|_     ___|     08/03
 _|__     _<__     __>_     __|_     _|__     ___|     08/04
 _<__     <___     __|_     __>_     <___     ___|     08/05

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

....   Oh, give me a phone, with a modem on loan..  
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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