Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Aug 02 2005 07:02 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Ya gotta love the American consumer!  Commerce Dept data for June
released today showed incomes increased, but spending increased even
more!  Mostly it was the new car deals, but they can't keep that up
(either consumers or dealers).  Inflation was tame, but with the yuan
floating, consumers are going to be paying more when it's "Made in
China".

Never mind, the Street took it at face value.  Prices jumped early then
levelled out some.  The gain wasn't significant in itself but it was
more than half way, and volume increased to +9% above average--just a
little shy of being an "accumulation" day.

I still don't like this move.  As you can see below, the Oscillator is
just above the line and isn't moving higher.  That means the broad
market isn't participating in the move.  That's worrysome.  The other
thing is momentum is moderately positive, but has been stalled for the
past few weeks.  Now what that really means is prices have been
increasing at a fairly steady rate.  It's not bad, but real rallies
often have days with significant increases in price on notably higher
volume.  That hasn't been happening.

So, if I was a Momentum Player, I might be playing this, but ready to
get out at the drop of a hat.  As a more traditional investor, I
wouldn't let my emotions be swayed by the apparently rising prices.
Don't be thinking this is the start of a new Bull Market!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     07/27
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     07/28
 _>__     __<_     __|_     _>__     __>_     ___|     07/29
 __|_     _<__     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___|     08/01
 __|_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___|     08/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... How come pizza gets to your house faster than the police?
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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