Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Aug 02 2005 07:02 pm

Content-type: text/plain

NASA is agonizing over whether to attempt a space-walk to try and stuff
some filler material back in between the major heat-shield tiles on the
shuttle's belly, perhaps just cut it off flush, or do nothing.  Other
shuttles have landed with bits of filler exposed.

My sister just called, distressed that her employer can't give her an
estimate of what her retirement fund, partially in fixed income and
partially in the market, would be worth at some point in the future.

The common element?  Trying to use information to predict which decision
would have the better outcome.  There are times when having infomation
provides an illusion of being able to make an intelligent decision.

In NASA's case, they now have information which they didn't previously.
What they don't know is the condition of previous shuttles' filler
strips before re-entry.  They have one data point.  It isn't
informative.

In my sister's case, even ignoring she's asking for market performance
predictions and assuming she could get the estimate she wanted, she
doesn't have the expenses side of the equation--though perhaps running
everything through Quicken would provide the basis for some guesses.

They are more evidence of the human quest for certainty and the
avoidance of risk.  It's just as common among investors.  It isn't to be
had!

All we can be certain of, if we work at it hard enough, is the present.
Today the market was up just over a point, and volume sank to -8% below
average.  The market is without much conviction these days.  And August
is the cruelest month of all.

But for all you grasshoppers out there, we're still above a "Bullish"
rising bottoms "support line".  We're even above the 20-day Moving
Average, above the 50-day, above the 200-day, and that's generally
considered Bullish.  Not Bullish or predictive in my opiniion, just
statements of where we are and where we've been.  My timing signal below
suggested a Buy at 1194, and that's 40pts ago--50pts last week.  ("Kung
Fu"?  Naw, Aesop!)

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     __|_     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     07/26
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     07/27
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     07/28
 _>__     __<_     __|_     _>__     __>_     ___|     07/29
 __|_     _<__     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___|     08/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... If ignorance isn't bliss, I don't know what is.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---
 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

.