Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Jul 29 2005 05:59 pm

Content-type: text/plain

After the first half-hour it was all downhill.  And when oil futures
went above $61/bbl and closed just under, there was no hope for the day.
Prices closed down 10pts, when 13pts would have been significant.  Not
good.  Still, there was no panic on the Street.  Volume was -5% below
average.

"The Commerce Department's latest reading on GDP showed the economy
growing at an annualized rate of 3.4 percent.  While economists had
expected GDP growth to come in at 3.5 percent, it was considered a
strong showing considering the high energy costs that continue to plague
the economy."

"The main reason why growth slowed in the second quarter compared with
the first was that businesses were working off excess supplies of goods.
That actually subtracted 2.32 percentage points from GDP.  In the first
quarter, businesses had bulked up their inventories."

OK now, don't let that slide!  Add it up, 3.4% + 2.32% = 5.7% or more!
I wonder if Greenspan has a half-point increase in his bag of tricks.

"In addition, news that gross domestic product increased 3.4% in the
second quarter, after a 3.8% increase in the first quarter, disappointed
investors, even though the result was in line with expectations.  Some
economists had set predictions for second-quarter economic growth of as
much as 4%."

Sometimes you just can't have what you wish for--you'll never be younger
and wiser.

"'If anything, it will give the Fed more reason to continue raising
rates,' predicted Robert MacIntosh, chief economist for Eaton Vance
Management in Boston."

You got that right!  If growth had been at those higher ranges the FOMC
would have had to raise rates higher and faster.  If the "news" is to be
believed that scared the Street today.

Like I've been saying, many of the young bucks on the Street only know
the Raging Bull bubble of the 90's, leading to the second-worst Bear
Market, leading to the Fed's "easy money" (trying to keep us out of
another Depression).  They haven't experience the market in more
traditional times, say pre-1980.  I don't think they know what to do
with this market.  "Single digit growth?!?!  What about my bonuses?"

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     __>_     __|_     _>__     _<__     ___|     07/25
 __<_     __|_     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     07/26
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     07/27
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     07/28
 _>__     __<_     __|_     _>__     __>_     ___|     07/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... If life were logical, MEN would ride side-saddle.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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