Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Jul 28 2005 06:53 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices moved steadily higher after an early morning bobble.  They closed
up half-way to being significant.  When I noticed volume was over 2Bs, I
had hopes.  But the volume increase was only 5% above average.  For the
past week the percentage change in volume has been within single digits
of average.  

Sooo, even though average volume, i.e. "enthusiasm", has been higher for
the past four months than it ever was in the preceeding 15 months, it
looks like this is a "restricted volume" rally.  Am I too suspicious if
I wonder if the big mutual fund managers are holding-on to their stocks
while they line-up their FY-end (October) portfolio window-dressing and
restructuring.  Of course, doing so drives prices higher, by the old
"Supply and Demand" equation.  But when prices get higher and they have
all their ducks in a row, there's a splendid opportunity for them to
sell into it, book some profits and sell losers to cancel those out.  It
looks like this is a good time for us to do likewise.  Got some losers
you should sell?  Got some profits you don't want to pay taxes on?

You're going to hear/see headlines about prices being highest in the
past 4 years.  That isn't a reason to BUY, but to HOLD or SELL.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     __>_     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___|     07/22
 _<__     __>_     __|_     _>__     _<__     ___|     07/25
 __<_     __|_     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     07/26
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     07/27
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     07/28

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Fortunately, I had a backup dated 1/1/80
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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