Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Jul 25 2005 06:51 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Half an hour after opening the Street liked something it heard, but it
didn't last long.  After jumping up it started a slide that lasted most
of the day, and it got worse after that.  There's just one word to
describe today's intraday chart: yuck!  It wasn't even an outright
bearish sell-off.  That would have been better.  This just dragged on
and on.  The one saving grace?  There was no enthusiasm to the day's
action.  Volume fell to -8% below average.

However, (you knew that was coming), there still isn't enough support
from the broad market to support a decent rally.  This isn't to say we
couldn't possibly see sharply rising prices in the short term.  What
appears to be a rally could be manufactured by the Street and the day
traders.  If it happens I'd be ready to "Sell into Strength" and take
some short-term profits or reduce some losses.  This has to be one of
the tactics in our toolbox!

Could the past three weeks or so, that ran prices 21pts above my 1214
Resistance/Support Line, 10pts above the early March high, nearly 100pts
above the April 20th low, have been no more than that?  Should we have
been selling over the past week?

If one had losses one shouldn't have allowed to accumulate, because
one can't protect oneself by implementing the 7% Solution, one should
always correct one's mistake as soon as possible.

This year hasn't shown many profitable opportunities.  I don't recommend
disturbing an investor's long term, strategic positions.  For most of
us those should probably be under "professional management" in mutual
funds.  But if one had a small part of one's portfolio, say, 5-10% in a
brokerage account because playing with that allowed one to leave the
important part alone, and one had some profits in these short-term
positions, one certainly could consider doing some of one's own profit
taking.  There's nothing quite so psychologically beneficial to an
individual investor than booking a profit!  We may not have many such
opportunities this year.

If you were lucky enough to have bought an S&P-500 proxy in late April,
consider your profit, and if you take it, stand up and take a bow.  But
don't let it go to your head.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __>_     __|_     __>_     __<_     ___>     07/19
 __|_     __>_     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___>     07/20
 _|__     __>_     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     07/21
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___|     07/22
 _<__     __>_     __|_     _>__     _<__     ___|     07/25

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... If you know the answer, you don't understand the question
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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