Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Jul 21 2005 06:47 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The news today was China following through on their promise to change
their monetary policy.  They immediately strengthened the yuan's
exchange rate, and allowed it to float within certain daily limits.
That increased our 10-year Treasury Note rates--indeed it will cause
many more revaluations.  Count on changes in the trade deficit and
balance of payments.

The market closed down moderately, 60% of significance.  But volume
increased to +14% above average.  That makes it a "Distribution" day,
the closing book-end to Tuesday's accumulation.

Volume continues to be higher since this spring.  In the preceeding 15
months or so its highest average was 1600Ms.  Since then it grew as high
as 2100Ms, shrank to just below 1800Ms, and is now around 1900Ms.  So in
spite of rather uninspiring price action, there's a lot of trading going
on.  Let me identify it as a "Swan Market"--all the action is taking
place out of plain sight--if all you watch is closing prices.

Don't fall asleep at the switch.  I think something is still going on.
I just don't know what it is, and what it means for the future.  Stay
alert!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _>__     __|_     _>__     __<_     ___>     07/15
 _<__     _>__     __|_     _|__     __<_     ___>     07/18
 __|_     __>_     __|_     __>_     __<_     ___>     07/19
 __|_     __>_     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___>     07/20
 _|__     __>_     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     07/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

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